Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs: #1 Fantasy Running Back

It’s time for some Fantasy Football talk. I won’t go into my usual top 5 rankings until the locks come off the doors and some free agents are signed, but I will comment on a few players that aren’t getting the recognition they deserve. It’s important to remember that fantasy rankings aren’t as cut and dry as most talented player or most popular at each position. And that takes me to my first point.

Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, and Arian Foster are considered by many as the front runners for the first selection at running back. I’m here to let you know that Jamaal Charles should be your number one ranked back. Before I get into the case for Charles, let’s lay out the problem for the others.

Chris Johnson – I realize that Johnson was the 6th running back in history to surpass the 2,000 yard mark. That’s great as far as statistics but horrific as far as wear and tear on a 5’11 frame that comes in under 200 pounds. In his first three seasons he has carried the ball over 900 times and that’s not factoring in the receptions. Look no further then another 2,000 yard back in Terrell Davis to see how a workhorse can breakdown before his time. Johnson is also going through the change that Davis did at the end of his career; seeing the franchise turned over to a rookie quarterback. Kenny Britt could be suspended the first 4 to 6 games and that will leave Jake Locker with Damian Williams as his key receiving threat. In other words, CJ will be facing 8 to 9 man fronts all season long and will probably receive over 350 rushes and another 50 touches through the air. He’ll hit the wall this season and his numbers will be affected.

Arian Foster – The Texans used a second round pick on Ben Tate last season and they also re-signed Derrick Ward. Tate looked spectacular during training camp before the injury. Kubiak will not wan’t to burn out Foster, especially if he has another effective back in the stable. I fully expect a 60-30-10 split between Foster, Tate, and Ward this season. Arian will continue to be a star in this league, but don’t expect him to rush for another 1,600 yards.

Adrian Peterson – Adrian is a beast. He’ll get the bulk of the goal line work, but you have to ask the question, how often will the Vikings be down at the goal line or the red zone for that matter? First off, Minnesota will need to re-sign Sidney Rice, but even if they bring him back to take the pressure off Peterson, who will get him the ball? Tarvaris Jackson isn’t deserving of a backup role, Joe Webb didn’t show me anything last season to excite me, Rhett Bomar isn’t the future or the present for that matter, and Christian Ponder may be use to a pro style offense, but he’s not use to the pros. Adrian will need the scores to make up for the loss on yardage this season.

Jamaal Charles – What will lead to Foster’s statistical decline will be what pushes Charles over the top. Last season I listed Charles as my number 6 fantasy running back going into the season. The reason I listed him there was I felt that Todd Haley would limit his touches and that he would share carries with Thomas Jones. This season Haley will let Charles run lose. A back that has 230 carries and still averages 6.4 yards an attempt needs more touches. Jones is aging and this will help force Haley’s hand. I expect Jamaal to run upwards of 1,800 yards in 2011 and combine that with another 500 in receiving. He’ll have to improve his touchdown totals but that will come with the combination of touches, combined with his home run ability, a la Chris Johnson circa 2009.

If you want to stay ahead of the trend, draft Jamaal Charles before any other running back this year. Scared money doesn’t make money….

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